CAVIRC.net - REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIA RATINGS

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<div><span class="htmla_titolo"><span class="htmla_paragrafo"><span class="htmla_titolo"><p align="center">REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIA </p><p align="center">COUNTRY RATINGS</p></span></span></span><p align="center" /><p align="center" /><p align="center"><strong><span class="htmla_paragrafo"><strong>ASSETS</strong> </span></strong></p><ul><li><span><span></span></span>The country has been enjoying regular growth and its admission to the European Union has enhanced its medium-term economic outlook. </li></ul></div><div><ul><li><span><span></span></span>With a web of solid ties to Western companies, Slovenia boasts the highest level of wealth in Central Europe. </li></ul></div><div><ul><li>Public sector finances and external accounts have been slightly in deficit.</li></ul><p align="center"><span class="htmla_paragrafo"><strong>WEAKNESSES</strong></span></p></div><div><ul><li><span><span></span></span>Small and very open, the economy has been very dependent on international economic conditions. </li></ul></div><div><ul><li><span><span></span></span>The country has been carrying relatively high foreign debt in relation to GDP. </li></ul></div><div><ul><li><span><span></span></span>Reforms need to be taken further (downsizing government, enhancing labour market flexibility).</li></ul><p> </p></div><table bordercolor="#330066" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="2" bgcolor="#ffffff" border="1"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" width="208"><div><strong>(USD millions)</strong></div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center"><strong>2001</strong></div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center"><strong>2002</strong></div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center"><strong>2003</strong></div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center"><strong>2004</strong></div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center"><strong>2005(f)</strong></div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center"><strong>2006(f)</strong></div></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="208"><div><strong>Economic growth (%)</strong></div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">2.7</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">3.5</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">2.7</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">4.2</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">3.9</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">4.0</div></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="208"><div><strong>Inflation (%)</strong></div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">8.4</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">7.5</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">5.6</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">3.6</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">2.5</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">2.5</div></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="208"><div><strong>Public sector balance (%GDP)</strong></div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">-1.3</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">-1.5</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">-1.4</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">-1.4</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">-1.3</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">-1.0</div></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="208"><div><strong>Unemployment (%)</strong></div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">6.4</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">6.3</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">6.7</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">6.4</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">6.2</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">6.0</div></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="208"><div><strong>Exports</strong></div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">9,343</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">10,471</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">12,913</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">15,818</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">18,645</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">21,150</div></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="208"><div><strong>Imports</strong></div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">9,962</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">10,723</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">13,538</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">16,862</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">19,675</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">22,288</div></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="208"><div><strong>Trade balance</strong></div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">-620</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">-252</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">-625</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">-1,044</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">-1,030</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">-1,138</div></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="208"><div><strong>Current account balance</strong></div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">31</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">325</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">-99</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">-275</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">-105</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">-167</div></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="208"><div><strong>Current account balance (%GDP) </strong></div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">0.2</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">1.5</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">-0.4</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">-0.9</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">-0.3</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">-0.4</div></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="208"><div><strong>Foreign debt (%GDP)</strong></div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">47.5</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">48.7</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">54.1</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">59.4</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">61.2</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">64.0</div></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="208"><div><strong>Debt service (%Exports)</strong></div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">8.7</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">9.9</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">13.4</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">15.4</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">16.3</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">14.6</div></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="208"><div><strong>Foreign currency reserves (in months of imports)</strong></div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">4.4</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">6.4</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">6.2</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">5.2</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">4.4</div></td><td valign="top" width="67"><div align="center">4.0</div></td></tr></tbody></table><div> </div><table bordercolor="#330066" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="3" bgcolor="#ffffff" border="1"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" width="283"><div align="center"><strong>Indicators</strong></div></td><td valign="top" width="123"><div align="center"><strong>SLOVENIA</strong></div></td><td valign="top" width="81"><div align="center"><strong>regional average</strong></div></td><td valign="top" width="107"><div align="center"><strong>emerging countries average</strong></div></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="283"><div align="center">GNP per capita (PPP dollars)</div></td><td valign="top" width="123"><div align="right">19100</div></td><td valign="top" width="81"><div align="right">7530</div></td><td valign="top" width="107"><div align="right">4300</div></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="283"><div align="center">GNP per capita</div></td><td valign="top" width="123"><div align="right">11920</div></td><td valign="top" width="81"><div align="right">2580</div></td><td valign="top" width="107"><div align="right">1280</div></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="283"><div align="center">Human development index</div></td><td valign="top" width="123"><div align="right">0,904</div></td><td valign="top" width="81"><div align="right">0,806</div></td><td valign="top" width="107"><div align="right">0,697</div></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="283"><div align="center">Wealthiest 10% share of national income (%)</div></td><td valign="top" width="123"><div align="right">21,4</div></td><td valign="top" width="81"><div align="right">30</div></td><td valign="top" width="107"><div align="right">33</div></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="283"><div align="center">Urban population percentage</div></td><td valign="top" width="123"><div align="right">49</div></td><td valign="top" width="81"><div align="right">74</div></td><td valign="top" width="107"><div align="right">43</div></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="283"><div align="center">Percentage under 15 years old</div></td><td valign="top" width="123"><div align="right">15,2</div></td><td valign="top" width="81"><div align="right">20</div></td><td valign="top" width="107"><div align="right">31</div></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="283"><div align="center">Number of telephones per 1,000 inhabitants</div></td><td valign="top" width="123"><div align="right">407</div></td><td valign="top" width="81"><div align="right">228</div></td><td valign="top" width="107"><div align="right">112</div></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="283"><div align="center">Number of computers per 1,000 inhabitants</div></td><td valign="top" width="123"><div align="right">301</div></td><td valign="top" width="81"><div align="right">48</div></td><td valign="top" width="107"><div align="right">40</div></td></tr></tbody></table><div> </div><div><p align="center"><span class="htmla_paragrafo"><strong>RISK ASSESSMENT</strong></span></p><p>Economic activity sagged slightly in 2005 amid an investment and public consumption slowdown. Private consumption, which will benefit from higher real wages, and exports should spur growth in 2006.<br />There has been a slight external account imbalance. Export revenues should continue to benefit from firm sales of vehicles and services. Although foreign direct investment inflows should increase thanks to privatisations, they have nonetheless been covering a relatively limited proportion of financing needs and foreign debt, particularly bank debt, has been increasing. Short-term liabilities have nonetheless been under control with debt service remaining sustainable and foreign exchange reserves still comfortable.<br />The country should be able to adopt the euro in January 2007. The exchange rate stability since the country joined the European exchange-rate mechanism (ERM2) in June 2004 has strengthened the disinflation process with Slovenia meeting the other Maastricht criteria.<br />The centre-right coalition should continue to dominate the political scene. However, its reform programme, intended to downsize the government and increase certain taxes, has drawn protests from unions and some segments of the opposition.</p></div></PRE>

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